• Global growth has surprised positively in Q1 with resilient labour market and falling energy prices, improving the outlook for consumers and businesses. Forecasted 2023 GDP growth was revised higher in most developed economies, while recession in the UK is now forecasted to be shorter and shallower than previously expected.
• US headline and core inflation data releases were in line with falling expectations while UK and European inflation releases came in above expectations. Despite stresses in the banking sector due to the Silicon Valley Bank collapse and the acquisition of Credit Suisse by UBS, major central banks raised interest rates in line with expectations, further strengthening their stance on monetary tightening.
• The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) expanded over the quarter, driven largely by an increase in demand and new orders in the services sector; indicating support for the upwards revisions to GDP growth forecasts.
• Although the manufacturing sector remains in contraction, the rate of the decline in demand has slowed to the lowest point in six months, suggesting that supply chains pressures have eased due to faster delivery times.

If you have any questions on anything covered, please get in touch.