Publication

InflationWatch - February 2024

13 February 2024

5 min

Authors

Chris Arcari

Head of Capital Markets

Philip Pearson

Senior Investment Consultant

Robert Kotlar

Investment Research Analyst

Since the Covid-19 pandemic, inflation has risen further and for longer than most market participants expected in many countries, including the UK.

Expansive monetary policy and fiscal stimulus, disruption to supply chains, and a shift in demand from services to goods during the pandemic all placed upwards pressure on inflation. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the global supply shock emanating from it, further exacerbated these price pressures.

We hope our InflationWatch series helps you assess the outlook for inflation. In this issue you’ll find:

an update on the latest position on inflation
consensus forecasts on future inflation rates
our view on whether the risks to the consensus view are tilted to the upside or downside

We focus on the UK and the outlook over the next 2–3 years. Our primary measure of inflation is the change, year on year, in the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI). Inflation in a modern, open economy is determined by a complex set of macroeconomic factors including aggregate demand, input costs, inflation expectations and monetary policy. You’ll find full explanations of the indicators we use to track each factor on pages six and seven, under ‘Decoding Inflation Indicators'.

If you have any questions on anything covered, please get in touch.

Disclaimer

This InflationWatch has been compiled by Hymans Robertson LLP® (HR) as a general information summary and is based on its understanding of events as at the date of publication, which may be subject to change. It is not to be relied upon for investment or financial decisions and is not a substitute for professional advice (including for legal, investment or tax advice) on specific circumstances.

HR accepts no liability for errors or omissions or reliance on any statement or opinion. Where we have relied upon data provided by third parties, reasonable care has been taken to assess its accuracy however we provide no guarantee and accept no liability in respect of any errors made by any third party.