• c£25bn buy-in and buy-out volumes expected in second half of 2022
• Total for 2022 predicted to be 25% higher than 2021 at c£35bn
• £50bn buy-ins and buy-outs expected on average each year for next 10 years
• By end of 2031, £1 trillion of pension scheme liabilities will be insured, covering 5 million members

Buy-in and buy-out market volumes were expected to be between £10bn and £12bn in the first half of 2022, according to Hymans Robertson’s latest survey of the insurance companies who offer pension scheme buy-ins. During the same six-month period, Hymans Robertson led the advice on £2.5bn of pension scheme risk transfer transactions.

The same insurers questioned by the leading pensions and financial services consultancy expected that buy-in and buy-out volumes would be close to £25bn in the second half of 2022. That would take the total for the whole of 2022 to be around £35bn, which would be more than a 25% increase on the 2021 volumes of £27.7bn.

James Mullins, Head of Risk Transfer at Hymans Robertson, comments:

“The spread of activity in the buy-in market during 2022 is shaping up to be similar to 2021, with a relatively modest level of activity in the first half of the year and then a very busy second half of the year. The insurers are getting very busy, receiving a significant number of buy-in quotation requests over the summer, which we expect will mean that the second half of 2022 becomes the second busiest six-month period ever for the buy-in market. That would also mean that 2022 would become the second busiest year on record for buy-ins and buy-outs.

“The rapid growth in demand for pension schemes to insure their risks, along with improved pension scheme funding levels, attractive insurer pricing and new alternative risk transfer options, means that we expect a record breaking year for buy-ins and buy-outs in 2023. This is likely to exceed the £44bn that we saw in 2019. We also expect around £50bn a year of buy-ins and buy-outs on average over the next 10 years, in addition to longevity swaps. That means by the end of 2031, £1 trillion of pension scheme liabilities will have been insured, covering 5 million members’ benefits."